Copper (HG) futures seasonality: sixteen years of month-by-month tendency, win rates and average change.
Futures Seasonality · 15-Year Study
Based on the last 15 completed calendar years · Updated for 2026
Copper is the industrial metal, and its seasonality reads more like the economy than like gold. Over the last fifteen years it shows a firm winter, a soft spring, a mid-year lull, and a strong finish, with the calendar’s standout landing in December. Here is the month-by-month record.
Copper (HG) — Average Monthly Change
15-year average, by calendar month. Hover any bar for the detail.
Every calendar month, ranked as it falls on the calendar. “Win rate” is how often copper closed the month higher; “avg change” is the mean move; “range” is the average high-to-low travel within the month.
| Month | Up / Down | Win rate | Avg change | Avg range |
|---|
Table view doubles as the accessible read of the chart above.
December leads a firm winter. December is copper’s most consistent month, higher in 11 of the last 15 years (73%), and it caps a strong turn-of-year stretch alongside January and June. February is actually the biggest average gainer of the group at 2.4%, so much of copper’s seasonal work gets done around the turn of the year.
Spring and late summer are the soft spots. The weakness clusters in a handful of months. March, May, and August all sit at a 40% win rate, and May is the softest of them, averaging a 1.7% loss. Copper tends to lose its footing once the winter bid fades and before the year-end strength returns.
Tighter swings, cleaner reads. Copper’s average monthly range runs near 9 to 11%, tighter than the precious metals, which makes its seasonal leans a little cleaner to follow. Because it trades on growth expectations, its calendar works best as a backdrop to the macro rather than a stand-alone timing tool.
A seasonal average tells you the backdrop. It doesn’t tell you where copper sits against that backdrop today, whether this year is tracking the norm or fighting it, or the levels that matter into the next session. That is what The Traders Brief does every morning, across metals, energy, and the indexes.
See today’s read →Which month is historically best for copper?
December, higher 11 of the last 15 years (73%). February is the biggest average gainer of the winter stretch at +2.4%.
Which month is worst for copper?
May is the softest, higher just 6 of 15 years (40%) with an average loss of 1.7%. March and August also sit at a 40% win rate.
Is copper seasonality reliable enough to trade on?
Seasonality is a backdrop, not a signal, and because copper trades on growth expectations its calendar is best read alongside the macro. It tells you the odds you are trading with or against; the daily brief pairs that with where price actually sits and what this year is doing versus the norm.
Seasonal tendencies are drawn from 15 years of historical Copper futures data and describe the past. They are not a forecast and not trading advice. Markets can and do trade against their seasonal record in any given year. © 2026 The Traders Brief.