Copper (HG) May (K) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.
Contract Almanac · Copper (COMEX)
Every May copper contract 2011–2026, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Feb 25 – Apr 26
The May contract inherits copper in late February with the Q1 hope trade already priced, and its file is the morning after: 7 of 16 higher, a −2.3% median, and a steady diet of springs where the March seat’s optimism met April’s actual data and lost. The 2024 tenure, riding the AI-and-grid squeeze to +13.8%, is the recent exception that outshines the rule.
Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. A copper contract holds the lead for roughly two months, and the March and December contracts closer to three, so tenures run 40 to 70 trading days, far longer than an energy tenure — these are seats, not months, and the day counts read accordingly. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.