Gold (GC) futures seasonality: sixteen years of month-by-month tendency, win rates and average change.
Futures Seasonality · 15-Year Study
Based on the last 15 completed calendar years · Updated for 2026
Gold has a seasonal shape most traders feel but few have actually counted. Over the last fifteen years, its calendar splits cleanly: a strong start, a soft early summer, a sharp mid-summer push, and an autumn air pocket that catches a lot of people leaning the wrong way. Here is the month-by-month record.
Gold (GC) — Average Monthly Change
15-year average, by calendar month. Hover any bar for the detail.
Every calendar month, ranked as it falls on the calendar. "Win rate" is how often gold closed the month higher; "avg change" is the mean move; "range" is the average high-to-low travel within the month.
| Month | Up / Down | Win rate | Avg change | Avg range |
|---|
Table view doubles as the accessible read of the chart above.
July is gold's month, and it isn't close. Up in 11 of the last 15 years with an average gain of 2.4%, it is the single strongest calendar month on the board. The strength tends to build through the middle of summer rather than arrive on day one.
September is the trap. Gold has closed higher only 4 times in 15 Septembers, a 27% hit rate, with an average loss near 1.8%. It is the weakest month of the year by a wide margin, and it comes right after a strong August, which is exactly why it catches momentum traders leaning long.
The year opens well and sags in the middle. January (67%, +3.0% average) and April (67%) are firm, May and June both lean negative, and the back half is mixed with a soft November before a steadier December. None of this is a promise. It is the tendency, measured, and a tendency is worth knowing before you take the other side of it.
A seasonal average tells you the backdrop. It doesn't tell you where gold sits against that backdrop today, whether this year is tracking the norm or fighting it, or the levels that matter into the next session. That is what The Traders Brief does every morning, across metals, energy, and the indexes.
See today's read →Which month is historically best for gold?
July. Over the last 15 years gold has closed July higher 11 times (73%), averaging a 2.4% gain, the strongest calendar month of the year.
Which month is worst for gold?
September, by a clear margin. Gold has finished September higher just 4 of the last 15 years (27%), averaging a loss of roughly 1.8%.
Is gold seasonality reliable enough to trade on?
Seasonality is a backdrop, not a signal. It tells you the odds you are trading with or against. The edge comes from pairing it with where price actually sits and what this year is doing versus the norm, which is what the daily brief tracks.
Seasonal tendencies are drawn from 15 years of historical Gold futures data and describe the past. They are not a forecast and not trading advice. Markets can and do trade against their seasonal record in any given year. © 2026 The Traders Brief.