E-mini Dow (YM) futures seasonality: sixteen years of month-by-month tendency, win rates and average change.
Futures Seasonality · 15-Year Study
Based on the last 15 completed calendar years · Updated for 2026
The Dow is the steadiest calendar in the index complex, the tightest ranges and the fewest surprises, with one month that towers over the rest of its year. Over the last fifteen years the YM record rewards patience through a flat middle and pays it off in the final stretch. Here is the month-by-month record.
E-mini Dow (YM) — Average Monthly Change
15-year average, by calendar month. Hover any bar for the detail.
Every calendar month, ranked as it falls on the calendar. “Win rate” is how often the Dow closed the month higher; “avg change” is the mean move; “range” is the average high-to-low travel within the month.
| Month | Up / Down | Win rate | Avg change | Avg range |
|---|
Table view doubles as the accessible read of the chart above.
November is the Dow’s crown. Higher in 14 of the last 15 years (93%) with an average gain of 3.7%, it is the single best month-and-consistency combination on the YM calendar, and October ahead of it is the biggest early hint, averaging +2.3%. The Dow’s year is largely made in its final quarter.
April and July are the quiet workhorses. Both have closed higher 12 of 15 years (80%), with July pairing that record with the smallest average range of the year. Between them sits a flat stretch, May averages just 0.1% and March exactly 0.0% despite winning most years, months that go up often but barely move.
September is the shared weakness of the whole index family. On the Dow it means a 47% win rate and an average decline of 1.1%, the only clearly negative month. The pattern across ES, NQ, YM, and RTY all pointing down in the same month is exactly the kind of alignment worth respecting.
A seasonal average tells you the backdrop. It doesn’t tell you where the Dow sits against that backdrop today, whether this year is tracking the norm or fighting it, or the levels that matter into the next session. That is what The Traders Brief does every morning, across the indexes, energy, and metals.
See today’s read →Which month is historically best for the Dow?
November, higher 14 of the last 15 years (93%) with an average gain of 3.7%. April and July follow at 80% each.
Which month is worst for the Dow?
September, higher just 7 of 15 years (47%) with an average decline of 1.1%, the only clearly negative month on the YM calendar.
Is Dow seasonality reliable enough to trade on?
Seasonality is a backdrop, not a signal. The Dow’s calendar is the steadiest of the four indexes, but any year can run against it, which is why the daily brief pairs the tendency with where price actually sits and what this year is doing versus the norm.
Seasonal tendencies are drawn from 15 years of historical E-mini Dow futures data and describe the past. They are not a forecast and not trading advice. Markets can and do trade against their seasonal record in any given year. © 2026 The Traders Brief.