E-mini Dow December (Z) Contract

E-mini Dow (YM) December (Z) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · E-mini Dow

The December Contract (YMZ): A 16-Year Study

Every December Dow contract 2010–2025, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Sep 12 – Dec 11

The December contract is the most repeatable file in our entire study. Holding the Dow from mid-September to mid-December, it has finished higher in 14 of 16 tenures (88%) with a +0.58 route consistency, the highest we measured anywhere: the October dip, the turn, the year-end rally, run nearly the same way, year after year, for sixteen years.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. An index contract holds the lead for a full quarter, roughly 63 trading days from one roll to the next — these are quarterly seats, not months, and the day counts read accordingly. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
14 / 2
88% finished higher
Avg change
+4.7%
median +4.3%
Avg best point
+7.0%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−4.9%
trough vs tenure open

Back to the Contract Almanac