E-mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ) futures seasonality: sixteen years of month-by-month tendency, win rates and average change.
Futures Seasonality · 15-Year Study
Based on the last 15 completed calendar years · Updated for 2026
The Nasdaq owns the single most reliable month in the index complex, and it is not December. Over the last fifteen years the NQ calendar tilts hard toward mid-summer and late autumn, leaves September as the lone losing month, and quietly skips the Santa rally everyone assumes it gets. Here is the month-by-month record.
E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ) — Average Monthly Change
15-year average, by calendar month. Hover any bar for the detail.
Every calendar month, ranked as it falls on the calendar. “Win rate” is how often the Nasdaq closed the month higher; “avg change” is the mean move; “range” is the average high-to-low travel within the month.
| Month | Up / Down | Win rate | Avg change | Avg range |
|---|
Table view doubles as the accessible read of the chart above.
July is the Nasdaq’s month, and it is the best index month on the board. Higher in 14 of the last 15 years (93%) with an average gain of 4.0%, it edges out even the S&P’s July. November follows at 87% and +3.1%, giving the NQ two separate high-conviction windows a quarter apart.
September stands alone on the losing side. Higher just 6 of 15 years (40%) with an average decline of 1.2%, it is the only month in the red over the window. Every other month of the year has averaged a gain, which tells you how narrow the Nasdaq’s seasonal weakness really is.
The Santa rally skips tech. December is the surprise on this calendar: a 53% coin flip with a flat-to-negative average, the second-weakest month of the year. The year-end strength that shows up in the Dow and S&P record simply has not carried the NQ, where the real rally comes in November and is largely spent by the time the calendar turns.
A seasonal average tells you the backdrop. It doesn’t tell you where the Nasdaq sits against that backdrop today, whether this year is tracking the norm or fighting it, or the levels that matter into the next session. That is what The Traders Brief does every morning, across the indexes, energy, and metals.
See today’s read →Which month is historically best for the Nasdaq?
July, higher 14 of the last 15 years (93%) with an average gain of 4.0%, the most reliable index month we track. November is second at 87%.
Which month is worst for the Nasdaq?
September, higher just 6 of 15 years (40%) with an average decline of 1.2%, the only losing month on the NQ calendar.
Does the Nasdaq get a Santa Claus rally?
The record says barely. December has been a 53% coin flip with a flat-to-negative average over the last 15 years. The Nasdaq’s year-end strength arrives in November instead.
Seasonal tendencies are drawn from 15 years of historical E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures data and describe the past. They are not a forecast and not trading advice. Markets can and do trade against their seasonal record in any given year. © 2026 The Traders Brief.