RBOB Gasoline (RB) futures seasonality: sixteen years of month-by-month tendency, win rates and average change.
Futures Seasonality · 15-Year Study
Based on the last 15 completed calendar years · Updated for 2026
No contract on the board has a seasonal signature like RBOB gasoline. The switch to summer-grade specification and the run into driving season give it the single most lopsided month in futures, and the post-summer unwind is nearly as dramatic on the other side. Here is the month-by-month record.
RBOB Gasoline (RB) — Average Monthly Change
15-year average, by calendar month. Hover any bar for the detail.
Every calendar month, ranked as it falls on the calendar. “Win rate” is how often gasoline closed the month higher; “avg change” is the mean move; “range” is the average high-to-low travel within the month.
| Month | Up / Down | Win rate | Avg change | Avg range |
|---|
Table view doubles as the accessible read of the chart above.
February is the most reliable month in the entire futures complex. Higher in 14 of the last 15 years (93%) with an average gain of 13.3%, nothing else we track comes close. The driver is structural: the market transitions toward summer-grade gasoline, a tighter, costlier specification, right as driving-season demand starts getting priced. Part of that gain lives in the calendar itself, so read it as a shape as much as a trade.
The unwind is nearly as reliable. August and September have both closed higher just 4 of 15 years (27%), with August averaging a steep 6.8% loss as summer demand peaks and the spec rolls back toward cheaper winter grade. The same structure that builds the spring premium takes it away in the fall.
One oddity worth knowing. March wins often, higher 11 of 15 years, yet averages a loss, because the few losing Marches have been crashes, with an average drop near 19% when it goes red. Gasoline’s seasonality is strong, but its tails are violent, and that asymmetry is exactly why the count alone is not a strategy.
A seasonal average tells you the backdrop. It doesn’t tell you where gasoline sits against that backdrop today, whether this year is tracking the norm or fighting it, or the levels that matter into the next session. That is what The Traders Brief does every morning, across energy, metals, and the indexes.
See today’s read →Which month is historically best for gasoline?
February, higher 14 of the last 15 years (93%) with an average gain of 13.3%, the most lopsided single month of any contract we track. The summer-grade specification switch and driving-season buildup drive it.
Which month is worst for gasoline?
August, higher just 4 of 15 years (27%) with an average loss of 6.8%, as the summer premium unwinds. September matches the 27% win rate.
Is gasoline seasonality reliable enough to trade on?
It is the strongest seasonal shape in futures, but part of the spring gain is structural, embedded in the grade switch, and the losing years have been violent. The daily brief pairs the tendency with where price actually sits and what this year is doing versus the norm.
Seasonal tendencies are drawn from 15 years of historical RBOB Gasoline futures data and describe the past. They are not a forecast and not trading advice. Markets can and do trade against their seasonal record in any given year. © 2026 The Traders Brief.