RBOB Gasoline January (F) Contract

RBOB Gasoline (RB) January (F) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · RBOB Gasoline

The January Contract (RBF): A 16-Year Study

Every January gasoline contract 2011–2026, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Nov 18 – Dec 16

The January gasoline contract leads from mid-November to mid-December, deep in the off-season, when driving demand is at its yearly low and winter-grade barrels are cheap to make. Its record is a genuine coin flip at 8 and 8, but the coin is not fair in size: the losses have run deeper than the wins, leaving a −1.1% average across sixteen tenures.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
8 / 8
50% finished higher
Avg change
−1.1%
median −1.2%
Avg best point
+6.3%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−7.5%
trough vs tenure open

Back to the Contract Almanac