Natural Gas October (V) Contract

Natural Gas (NG) October (V) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

The October Contract (NGV): A 16-Year Study

Every October natural gas contract 2010–2025, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Aug 25 – Sep 22

The October contract leads through most of September, when the market starts arguing about winter in earnest, and its file swings on which side of that argument the year lands: a dead-even 8 and 8, an early median low on day 7.5, a late median high on day 17.5, and tails that include both a 46% intratenure spike and a 27% collapse. This is where the winter premium gets born, or doesn’t.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
8 / 8
50% finished higher
Avg change
+0.4%
median +0.7%
Avg best point
+10.6%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−7.5%
trough vs tenure open

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