Natural Gas March (H) Contract

Natural Gas (NG) March (H) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

The March Contract (NGH): A 16-Year Study

Every March natural gas contract 2011–2026, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Jan 24 – Feb 20

The March contract is the widow-maker’s echo. Leading from late January through most of February, it inherits whatever winter premium survived the January contract, and its record says the inheritance is usually still shrinking: down 11 of 16 with a −8.2% median, an early median high on day 4.5, and a late median low on day 16.5. The script that defines the January file has carried straight into this one.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
5 / 11
31% finished higher
Avg change
−3.8%
median −8.2%
Avg best point
+13.7%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−14.2%
trough vs tenure open

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