Natural Gas January (F) Contract

Natural Gas (NG) January (F) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

The January Contract (NGF): A 16-Year Study

Every January natural gas contract 2011–2026, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Nov 22 – Dec 22

This is the widow-maker’s own page. The January natural gas contract, the peak-of-winter delivery every instinct says to own, has fallen in 12 of its 16 tenures with a −9.6% average and a −13.6% median, the worst record of any contract in any market we track. And unlike everything else in this study, it has lost the same way almost every time: a flicker of strength in the first week, then a grinding slide to a late low as December’s weather reality collides with a premium priced months earlier.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
4 / 12
25% finished higher
Avg change
−9.6%
median −13.6%
Avg best point
+8.8%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−17.8%
trough vs tenure open

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