Heating Oil / ULSD (HO) futures seasonality: sixteen years of month-by-month tendency, win rates and average change.
Futures Seasonality · 15-Year Study
Based on the last 15 completed calendar years · Updated for 2026
Heating oil is the diesel barrel, and its calendar carries two seasons of demand: winter heating in the front of the year and harvest-and-freight diesel in the back half of summer. The 15-year record shows both, along with a spring air pocket that surprises people. Here is the month-by-month record.
Heating Oil (HO) — Average Monthly Change
15-year average, by calendar month. Hover any bar for the detail.
Every calendar month, ranked as it falls on the calendar. “Win rate” is how often heating oil closed the month higher; “avg change” is the mean move; “range” is the average high-to-low travel within the month.
| Month | Up / Down | Win rate | Avg change | Avg range |
|---|
Table view doubles as the accessible read of the chart above.
Winter opens firm, and June is the quiet giant. January, February, and July all sit at a 60% win rate, the calendar’s most consistent months. The biggest average move belongs to June at +3.0%, when the market starts pricing the second half’s diesel demand. Summer strength in a “heating” product is exactly the kind of count most desks never sit down to run.
March and November are the two air pockets. March has the worst win rate, higher just 5 of 15 years (33%), as winter demand dies faster than the market expects. November averages the deepest loss at 3.1%, a rough month to be long the winter story that everyone already owns.
The spread story is the real story. Heating oil rarely trades alone. Its relationship to crude, the crack, is where professionals live, and the seasonal shape of that spread differs from the flat-price calendar shown here. The daily brief tracks both, the outright and the crack, every session.
A seasonal average tells you the backdrop. It doesn’t tell you where heating oil sits against that backdrop today, whether this year is tracking the norm or fighting it, or the levels that matter into the next session. That is what The Traders Brief does every morning, across energy, metals, and the indexes.
See today’s read →Which month is historically best for heating oil?
January, February, and July share the best win rate at 60%. June is the biggest average gainer at +3.0%, when second-half diesel demand starts getting priced.
Which month is worst for heating oil?
March has the lowest win rate, higher just 5 of 15 years (33%). November averages the deepest loss at −3.1%.
Is heating oil seasonality reliable enough to trade on?
Seasonality is a backdrop, not a signal, and in heating oil the crack spread against crude often matters more than the flat price. The daily brief pairs the seasonal tendency with where price and the cracks actually sit today.
Seasonal tendencies are drawn from 15 years of historical Heating Oil futures data and describe the past. They are not a forecast and not trading advice. Markets can and do trade against their seasonal record in any given year. © 2026 The Traders Brief.