Heating Oil / ULSD December (Z) Contract

Heating Oil / ULSD (HO) December (Z) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Heating Oil (ULSD)

The December Contract (HOZ): A 16-Year Study

Every December heating oil contract 2010–2025, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Oct 18 – Nov 16

The December contract begins heating oil’s hardest corridor. Leading from mid-October to mid-November, it has finished higher in just 6 of 16 tenures with a −2.7% median, and behind it comes the even weaker January contract. Together the two winter-delivery months have been the place where the season’s premium, built all autumn, starts getting handed back.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
6 / 10
38% finished higher
Avg change
−1.3%
median −2.7%
Avg best point
+5.2%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−7.0%
trough vs tenure open

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