Heating Oil / ULSD November (X) Contract

Heating Oil / ULSD (HO) November (X) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Heating Oil (ULSD)

The November Contract (HOX): A 16-Year Study

Every November heating oil contract 2010–2025, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Sep 18 – Oct 17

The November contract is autumn’s quiet earner, and the counterweight to everything traders assume about heating oil’s calendar. While the winter-delivery January contract loses, this one, leading from mid-September to mid-October, has gained in 11 of 16 tenures, as harvest diesel, freight season, and the first winter stocking demand all pull at the barrel before the winter premium peaks.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
11 / 5
69% finished higher
Avg change
+2.9%
median +1.1%
Avg best point
+7.9%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−5.7%
trough vs tenure open

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