Heating Oil / ULSD September (U) Contract

Heating Oil / ULSD (HO) September (U) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Heating Oil (ULSD)

The September Contract (HOU): A 16-Year Study

Every September heating oil contract 2010–2025, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Jul 18 – Aug 17

The September contract is the board’s tightest range trader. It has the HO calendar’s shallowest tails, an average best point of +6.0% against a worst of −6.4%, and an average change of almost exactly zero across 16 tenures. It leads from mid-July to mid-August, when summer demand is known and winter is still a rumor, and most years it simply marks time.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
6 / 10
38% finished higher
Avg change
0.0%
median −0.9%
Avg best point
+6.0%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−6.4%
trough vs tenure open

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