Heating Oil / ULSD July (N) Contract

Heating Oil / ULSD (HO) July (N) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Heating Oil (ULSD)

The July Contract (HON): A 16-Year Study

Every July heating oil contract 2011–2026, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads May 18 – Jun 17

The July contract is dead even at 8 and 8, and it is the HO board’s ride-it-out month: the defining extreme printed in the final five sessions in 11 of 16 years, with the latest median high on the calendar after February’s. It leads from mid-May to mid-June, when the market starts pricing the second half’s diesel demand, and whichever way it breaks, it has tended to keep going.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
8 / 8
50% finished higher
Avg change
+0.7%
median −0.8%
Avg best point
+7.9%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−7.8%
trough vs tenure open

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