Heating Oil / ULSD May (K) Contract

Heating Oil / ULSD (HO) May (K) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Heating Oil (ULSD)

The May Contract (HOK): A 16-Year Study

Every May heating oil contract 2011–2026, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Mar 18 – Apr 16

The May contract settles the board down after April’s fireworks. It leads from mid-March to mid-April with a respectable 9 and 7 record and a +3.8% median, collecting the tail end of spring diesel demand while the market’s attention drifts to gasoline. Its file is quieter than its neighbors on both sides, and quieter is exactly its value.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
9 / 7
56% finished higher
Avg change
+2.3%
median +3.8%
Avg best point
+8.8%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−5.2%
trough vs tenure open

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