Heating Oil / ULSD (HO) March (H) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.
Contract Almanac · Heating Oil (ULSD)
Every March heating oil contract 2011–2026, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Jan 18 – Feb 15
The March contract is the biggest earner on the HO board: a +4.2% average, a +5.6% median, and 11 winners in 16 tries. It leads from mid-January to mid-February, the stretch where late-winter cold meets the year’s lowest distillate inventories, and its file has the clearest repeatable shape of any HO month, a quick early dip and a long climb.
Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.