Heating Oil / ULSD January (F) Contract

Heating Oil / ULSD (HO) January (F) contract study: year-by-year results, the day-by-day shape of the move and where highs and lows printed.

Contract Almanac · Heating Oil (ULSD)

The January Contract (HOF): A 16-Year Study

Every January heating oil contract 2011–2026, measured over its tenure as the lead contract · Typically leads Nov 18 – Dec 16

Here is the one that surprises people most: the January heating oil contract, the peak-of-winter delivery everyone instinctively wants to own, has been the worst seat on the HO board. Down 10 of its 16 tenures with a −2.8% average, it takes the lead in mid-November carrying a winter premium the market has usually finished paying for, and its tenure is where that premium has gone to die.

How this study is measured

Each year is one contract, measured from the open of the day it took over the lead to the close of the day it handed off, the same roll convention used across all Traders Brief research. Tenure lengths vary by a few trading days from year to year, so day counts differ slightly at the tail. All highs and lows are the contract’s own trades, marked by trading day of the tenure, not calendar day.

Record
6 / 10
38% finished higher
Avg change
−2.8%
median −3.4%
Avg best point
+5.1%
peak vs tenure open
Avg worst point
−9.2%
trough vs tenure open

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