WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures seasonality: sixteen years of month-by-month tendency, win rates and average change.
Futures Seasonality · 15-Year Study
Based on the last 15 completed calendar years · Updated for 2026
Crude has the most talked-about seasonal pattern in futures, the spring build into driving season and the autumn fade, and the 15-year record largely backs the folklore while adding edges most traders have never counted. Here is the month-by-month record for WTI.
WTI Crude (CL) — Average Monthly Change
15-year average, by calendar month. Hover any bar for the detail.
Every calendar month, ranked as it falls on the calendar. “Win rate” is how often crude closed the month higher; “avg change” is the mean move; “range” is the average high-to-low travel within the month.
| Month | Up / Down | Win rate | Avg change | Avg range |
|---|
Table view doubles as the accessible read of the chart above.
The spring ramp is real. February is crude’s most consistent month, higher in 10 of the last 15 years (67%), and the strength runs clear through June. April, May, and June all lean positive, with May the biggest average gainer at 3.4%. That is the classic pre-driving-season build, and the record says it has earned its reputation.
The back half of the year is where crude goes to struggle. From July through November, every single month averages a loss. September has the worst win rate, higher just 5 of 15 years (33%), while November digs the deepest hole, averaging a 2.9% decline. Demand season ends, refinery maintenance begins, and the calendar reads it plainly.
Spring is also when crude moves the most. The average monthly range peaks near 21% in April and stays elevated through May, roughly half again as wide as the quiet autumn months. A favorable seasonal lean in spring comes packaged with the year’s biggest swings, so the tendency and the turbulence arrive together.
A seasonal average tells you the backdrop. It doesn’t tell you where crude sits against that backdrop today, whether this year is tracking the norm or fighting it, or the levels that matter into the next session. That is what The Traders Brief does every morning, across energy, metals, and the indexes.
See today’s read →Which month is historically best for crude oil?
February is the most consistent, higher 10 of the last 15 years (67%). May is the biggest average gainer at +3.4%, the heart of the spring driving-season ramp.
Which month is worst for crude oil?
September has the lowest win rate, higher just 5 of 15 years (33%). November averages the deepest loss at −2.9%. Every month from July through November leans negative.
Is crude oil seasonality reliable enough to trade on?
Seasonality is a backdrop, not a signal. Crude’s calendar has one of the cleaner seasonal shapes in futures, but any given year can run against it, which is why the daily brief pairs the tendency with where price actually sits and what this year is doing versus the norm.
Seasonal tendencies are drawn from 15 years of historical WTI Crude Oil futures data and describe the past. They are not a forecast and not trading advice. Markets can and do trade against their seasonal record in any given year. © 2026 The Traders Brief.