Brent Crude Oil (BZ) futures seasonality: sixteen years of month-by-month tendency, win rates and average change.
Futures Seasonality · 15-Year Study
Based on the last 15 completed calendar years · Updated for 2026
Brent is the world’s barrel, and its calendar rhymes with WTI while keeping its own accent: the same spring strength and autumn fade, but with February standing even taller and the summer holding up a touch better. Here is the month-by-month record.
Brent (BZ) — Average Monthly Change
15-year average, by calendar month. Hover any bar for the detail.
Every calendar month, ranked as it falls on the calendar. “Win rate” is how often Brent closed the month higher; “avg change” is the mean move; “range” is the average high-to-low travel within the month.
| Month | Up / Down | Win rate | Avg change | Avg range |
|---|
Table view doubles as the accessible read of the chart above.
February is Brent’s month. Higher in 10 of the last 15 years (67%) with an average gain of 3.7%, it is both the most consistent and the biggest average month on Brent’s calendar. The strength carries into April’s +2.5% before the tape flattens out through summer.
The autumn fade lands hardest in November. September and November share the calendar’s lowest win rate at 40%, and November is the deeper cut, averaging a 2.9% loss. March is the sneaky one, down 2.1% on average despite winning more than half the time, because the losing Marches have been ugly ones.
Brent runs a steadier tape than WTI. Its average monthly ranges sit a notch tighter than WTI’s in almost every month, and its summer holds closer to flat where WTI leans negative. The two barrels share a calendar, but the spread between them has its own seasonality, which is exactly the kind of detail the daily brief tracks.
A seasonal average tells you the backdrop. It doesn’t tell you where Brent sits against that backdrop today, whether this year is tracking the norm or fighting it, or the levels that matter into the next session. That is what The Traders Brief does every morning, across energy, metals, and the indexes.
See today’s read →Which month is historically best for Brent crude?
February, higher 10 of the last 15 years (67%) with an average gain of 3.7%, the strongest month on Brent’s calendar by both measures.
Which month is worst for Brent crude?
November, higher just 6 of 15 years (40%) with an average loss of 2.9%. September matches the 40% win rate with a smaller average decline.
Is Brent seasonality reliable enough to trade on?
Seasonality is a backdrop, not a signal. Brent’s calendar tracks WTI’s closely but not identically, and any given year can run against the record, which is why the daily brief pairs the tendency with where price actually sits and what this year is doing versus the norm.
Seasonal tendencies are drawn from 15 years of historical Brent Crude futures data and describe the past. They are not a forecast and not trading advice. Markets can and do trade against their seasonal record in any given year. © 2026 The Traders Brief.